Current situation of global carbon fiber composite material industry: accelerating development trend in domestic market technology level

1、 Industry Overview
Composite materials refer to new materials with special functions and structures composed of two or more heterogeneous, heterogeneous, and heterogeneous materials. Among these heterogeneous, heterogeneous, and heterogeneous materials, one part serves as the matrix and the other part serves as the reinforcing material.
According to the "Analysis of the Development Status and Investment Strategy Research Report on China's Carbon Fiber Composite Material Equipment Industry (2023-2030)" released by Guanyan Report.com, carbon fiber composite materials refer to structural or functional materials made from composite materials such as resin, metal, ceramics, and rubber as the matrix, and carbon fiber as the reinforcement material.
According to the different matrix materials, carbon fiber composite materials can be divided into resin based composite materials, metal based composite materials, ceramic based composite materials, and rubber based composite materials. Resin based composite materials refer to composite materials made with polymers (commonly known as resins) as the matrix and carbon fibers as reinforcing materials, mainly used in fields such as architecture, chemistry, transportation, medical treatment, and aerospace; Metal matrix composite materials refer to composite materials made by soaking and solidifying metals, alloys, and intermetallic compounds as the matrix, and carbon fibers as the reinforcement material. They are mainly used in fields such as aviation, aerospace, automobiles, and sports goods; Ceramic matrix composite material refers to a composite material made of ceramic material as the matrix and carbon fiber as the reinforcing material, mainly used in high-temperature components of engines and other fields; Rubber based composite materials refer to composite materials made of rubber material as the matrix and carbon fiber as the reinforcing material, mainly used in fields such as pipes, wear-resistant lining wheels, and special seals.
Among them, carbon fiber reinforced resin based composites (CFRP) are resin based composites reinforced with carbon fibers and their products. At present, carbon fiber composite materials are mainly resin based composite materials, accounting for over 80% of the total market share of carbon fiber composite materials.
2、 Industry development status
1. Global market
Since 2004, the carbon fiber market has suddenly become scarce, and the supply of carbon fiber composite materials has become scarce, resulting in a situation of oversupply and a sharp rise in prices. Subsequently, with the significant increase in demand for carbon fiber in aerospace, sports and leisure, and industrial applications, the global carbon fiber composite material market has grown rapidly. The global carbon fiber composite material market size in 2018 was 12.967 billion US dollars, and by 2022, the global carbon fiber composite material market size has grown to 21.326 billion US dollars, with a composite growth rate of 13.24%.
From the overall distribution of international carbon fiber composite material regions, in recent years, Asia has the largest carbon fiber market in the world, accounting for approximately 69.26% of the total global demand; Next are North America and Europe, with market sizes accounting for 16.26% and 11.20%, respectively.
Among the major countries, in 2022, the exports of Japan, Taiwan, China, the United States, Mexico and other countries to China will decrease to varying degrees. South Korea will double, Germany will have a huge growth, and Hungary will maintain a steady small growth. We believe that this is mainly due to the global shortage of carbon fiber, leading to a decrease in supply to China. The significant growth in South Korea also has significant contributions from Hyosung Company; The huge growth in Germany should be the result of Sigri's adjustment of the product application market.
2. Chinese market
(1) Market size
In recent years, with the strong support of the country, the domestic carbon fiber industry has made significant breakthroughs, and the technological level and industrialization level of carbon fiber and its application fields have accelerated, entering an unprecedented new stage of development. In China, carbon fiber industry clusters mainly in Jiangsu, Shandong, and Jilin have initially formed. From the perspective of market size, from 2018 to 2022, the market size of China's carbon fiber composite material industry showed an increasing trend, with an increase of 84.526 billion yuan from 28.29 billion yuan. The compound growth rate reached 32.07%.
(2) Yield
China's research on carbon fiber began in the 1960s, and its development rate has been very slow in the past 50 years. The main development period has been concentrated in the past decade, especially during the 11th Five Year Plan period when the production of carbon fiber composite materials began to show significant growth. At present, the production scale of China's carbon fiber composite material industry is still small, with single product specifications, and the domestic market is in short supply.
From the perspective of supply, in recent years, the production of carbon fiber composite materials in China has maintained a rapid growth rate. From 2018 to 2022, the production of carbon fiber composite materials in China increased from 33100 tons to 62000 tons, an increase of nearly twice, with an average annual growth of 17.45%. It is expected that the production of carbon fiber composite materials in China will reach 122500 tons by 2025.
(3) Demand
Overall, the demand for carbon fiber composite materials in China has shown a rapid growth trend in recent years. The main reason is the increase in the global application of carbon fibers, and the encouragement policies proposed by the government for the development of carbon fiber composite materials, which has led to a long-term and rapid growth in China's demand for carbon fibers. From 2018 to 2022, the demand for carbon fiber composite materials in China increased from 47700 tons to 78000 tons. The compound growth rate is 13.27%.
(4) Segmented markets
Sports Leisure
In 2022, the global demand for carbon fiber for fishing rods in the field of sports and leisure is the highest, accounting for 35.14%, followed by golf and bicycles, accounting for 22.16% and 19.46% respectively. The popularization of the concept of sports and health, as well as the improvement of per capita consumption capacity, will drive the long-term stable growth of the sports and leisure market.
Thanks to the promotion of European sports products, especially bicycle subsidy policies, and the production capacity of other sports goods manufacturing countries, the demand for carbon fiber in China's sports and leisure industry is booming in 2022. In 2022, the market size of carbon fiber composite materials for sports and leisure in China reached 30.937 billion yuan.
The impact of the overseas epidemic has weakened, and the demand for sports and leisure in the future is expected to continue to grow. In 2020, due to the global epidemic, outdoor sports activities were limited, leading to a slowdown in the global demand for sports and leisure equipment. From 2021 to 2022, with the relaxation of overseas epidemic control measures, the impact of the epidemic has further weakened, driving an increase in global demand for sports equipment. Due to the gradual relaxation of the epidemic and the decrease in production capacity and prices of carbon fiber for civilian products, it is expected that the demand for carbon fiber composite materials in China's sports and leisure industry will continue to grow in the future.
Aerospace
Carbon fiber has obvious performance advantages, and the substitution process has entered the fast lane. The alternative use of small tow carbon fibers in the aerospace industry has natural advantages. As a new type of composite material, it has advantages such as low density, high hardness, corrosion resistance, and stable properties compared to traditional materials such as aluminum alloy. The strong creep resistance and high-temperature resistance of carbon fiber composite materials are beneficial for maintaining shape in space, making them widely used in the aerospace field for preparing manned spacecraft and earth orbiting satellites. The lightweight advantage of carbon fiber is reflected in the preparation process of civil aircraft. The overall weight reduction of the aircraft can effectively reduce costs, and a weight reduction of 300 kilograms can increase net income by $10 million per year. The operating cost advantage further drives the process of carbon fiber replacement.
In the global aerospace industry in 2022, the demand for carbon fiber for commercial aircraft is the highest, at 5800 tons, accounting for 35.3%, followed by drones and military aircraft. Affected by the epidemic, the global civil aviation market has shrunk, which has had a negative impact on the demand side for carbon fiber in the aerospace industry. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global air passenger traffic is expected to return to pre pandemic levels by 2023 and is expected to experience a significant recovery after 2024. Based on the pace of epidemic recovery and the longer certification period for aerospace, it is difficult to increase penetration rate. Therefore, the recovery of aerospace demand is mainly stable.
In 2022, the market size of carbon fiber composite materials for aerospace in China reached 26.626 billion yuan.
Wind turbine blades
Carbon fiber, as a high-quality lightweight material, is widely used in wind turbine blades. Compared with glass fiber materials, carbon fiber reinforced composite materials with large wire bundles have advantages of lower density, corrosion resistance, and higher strength. They are mainly used in main beam caps, blade roots, and skin areas, effectively improving blade stiffness and fatigue strength. The inspection of a domestic wind turbine blade showed that the 0 ° tensile and compressive moduli of glass fiber using fiber pouring technology were 54GPa and 52GPa, respectively; Carbon fiber is 120GPa and 115GPa, with a nearly double increase in strength, which can effectively increase the service life of wind turbine blades. The lightweight advantage of carbon fiber is reflected in the preparation of blades. The weight of the main beam poured with high modulus glass fiber is 3.6 tons, while the weight of the main beam extruded with carbon fiber is only 1.4 tons. The weight of the entire blade has been reduced from 13.5 tons to 11.8 tons, with a weight reduction ratio of 12.59%, which is expected to reduce subsequent power generation costs.
As a clean energy source, wind power has been favored by countries around the world before photovoltaic power generation, and has experienced rapid global growth in the past decade. Currently, with the increasing rate of wind turbines, especially stimulated by the demand for offshore wind turbines, the trend of large-scale wind turbines worldwide is becoming increasingly evident. According to the Global Wind Energy Council's forecast, the global wind power installation will exceed 300GW in the next five years. Among them, with the advancement of globalization, offshore wind power is entering an accelerated development stage, and it is expected that there will be 40GW of new installed capacity in the next five years. There is a promising demand for carbon fiber in the wind power generation industry and wind turbine blades.